I love dogs. I have had a Jack Russell terrier (JRT) for the last six years. He is about 10 inches high and weighs about 7 kgs. I recently moved him to a new location where he met with another dog, part Rhodesian Ridgeback and part Boerboel (RRB), who weighs about 70kgs and is about 30 inches high. They are both alpha males. JRT’s are known to be bold, tenacious and highly spirited. What they lack in size, they make up in ego and bravado and, inevitably, JRT engaged RRB into a fight. That pipsqueak came within a whisker of death and had to get lifesaving surgery. You’d think he learnt a lesson having tried to rumble with an enemy ten times his weight and three times his height? No. Two months later, they had another violently physical confrontation and JRT came within three whiskers of death, ending up back in pet hospital. JRT does not see size when he comes face to face with RRB. He sees territory. And he will fight to the death to protect what he deems as his space.

Watching Iran take on the United States (US) in the current Gulf war reminds me of these two dogs. The US has always given the impression that it has the world’s best defence industry and military might. It has the loudest bark that has been heard in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya to name a few. It has the biggest bite, and if you don’t believe it, ask the Venezuelans who woke up one morning and found their President had been mysteriously carted away overnight – accompanied by his better half – since the Americans strongly respect the institution of marriage. It’s the big dog, the Rottweiler, that can walk into any jurisdiction, sniff around and then water the ground to mark its territory. At least that’s what the February 28^th 2026 joint US and Israeli military campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran is demonstrating.

Iran, on the other hand, has been giving JRT vibes. A small dog compared to the US and one that is not afraid to sabre rattle by occasionally launching missiles into Israel, attempting to build nuclear warhead capacity and funding regional proxies in the volatile Middle East region. Given its performance over the last four weeks of the war, especially the scale up in attacks on Israel after the holy month of Ramadhan ended on March 20^th, perhaps Iran’s size as an enemy has been grossly underestimated.

Consequently, the Iran war has introduced a new lexicon of terms that are worthwhile to mention:

1. “Off-Ramp”: An off ramp is a designated exit that allows vehicles to leave a highway or expressway and ease into a local road. In conflict terms, it is a pathway aimed at de-escalating tensions, allowing parties to retreat or disengage without losing face. The Americans went into the war without obtaining the necessary internal congressional approvals, together with the fact that the billions of taxpayer dollars are funding a war in a distant region that makes no political sense to the average taxpayer. Hence commentators are gleefully reminding observers that an “off-ramp” is now being actively sought. One that allows the United States to get off the hubris lined expressway and negotiate their way onto the road of alleged victory over a grossly underestimated enemy.
2. “Decapitation”: A strategy aimed at removing the leadership or command structure of an enemy. Political leaders, top generals and command centres are eliminated to destabilize the opponent’s ability to fight. It then begs the question: if indeed a decapitation occurred in the first weeks of the attack, who then will sit on the “off-ramp” negotiating table?
3. “Devolved Military Regime”: The Iranians have been planning for this war for a long time. So much so that they have business continuity plans in the event of a decapitation. A dualized military structure in the form of a regular army and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, seemingly with autonomous decision-making, has ensured that its missile striking capacity has continued from various locations. Following the decapitation, the “centre” as it were, is not unravelling as planned. It turns out the Iranian leadership is a multi-headed hydra. Once again, how then does an off-ramp become feasible?

We have a sad situation of several devolved Jack Russell terriers on the loose against a massive Rottweiler of an interloper. They are tenacious, cunning and on home ground. Meanwhile the rest of the world, which doesn’t have a dog in this fight, suffers the painful fallout of higher oil prices, looming fertilizer shortages and, closer to home, loss of markets for our tea and floriculture in the Middle East. We can only adopt the same attitude we adopted during Covid-19: Wait and see. Meanwhile back at dog central, I relocated JRT from his war zone and brought him back home. Left unchecked, his ego would have taken him to dog heaven. He lives to fight another day.

X: @carolmusyoka

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