How Geopolitics Affect Sheep and Goats
I am a shoat farmer. Shoats stand for sheep and goats. My shoats need feed which I grow on the farm. The feeds are super napier grass, maize and sorghum for silage and lucerne. Not to mention Boma Rhodes grass. Once harvested and stored, we put the feed through a milling machine to make cut them down to a manageable size for mixing into an optimal ratio and reduce wastage. I won’t bore you with the details, but the current Middle East conflict is now affecting my shoats. Why? Because the confounded milling machine is powered by petrol (whose price is about to go through the roof) and the next round of feeds is supposed to be grown with the assistance of fertilizer (which is about to go into shortage mode).
I therefore went down a research rabbit hole, trying to understand how we got here. How unsuspecting Laikipian shoats have found their survival linked to the hitherto unheard of Strait of Hormuz. I found a number of key terms that helped me get about a ten per cent understanding of the sheer complexity that is the Middle East conflict.
- Zionism: Zionism originated as a Jewish nationalist movement in the late 19th century, aiming to establish a homeland for Jews in Palestine where Jews could return to their ancestral land and exercise their rights to self-determination. It was formally organized by Theodor Herzl at the First Zionist Congress in 1897, in Basel, Switzerland, though earlier groups like Hovevei Zion (“Lovers of Zion”) had already begun settling in Palestine in the 1870s. The movement led to the eventual creation of Israel in 1948, in the process displacing Palestinians who had lived on that land for centuries.
- Islamic Republic of Iran: Established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, they adopted a constitution that includes a preamble declaring Iran’s duty to support the just struggles of the oppressed against the arrogant in every corner of the globe. The “oppressed” has historically been taken to specifically refer to the Palestinians in their fight against what is regarded as Israeli aggression. In 2020 Iran’s parliament passed the “Law countering the hostile actions of the Zionist regime against peace and security”, a sweeping anti-Israel measure that bans all forms of contact between Iranian citizens, companies and institutions with Israel and reinforces Iran’s recognition of Palestine.
- Palestine: The ones displaced by the Zionists. See 1. Above. The Palestinian Declaration of Independence, proclaimed in 1988, does not recognize the legitimacy of the Israeli state.
- Syria: Israel’s neighbour who, following the 1967 Six Day War, lost a territory called the Golan Heights, which was subsequently officially annexed by Israel in 1981. Consequently, the 2012 Syrian constitution specifically states in its preamble that Syria is committed to resisting Zionism and supporting liberation movements across the Arab world. The constitution also specifically lays a claim to the annexed territory.
- Non-State Actors: Enter stage left Hezbollah and Hamas. These are the supporting characters in this decades long drama. Hezbollah was established in 1982 during the Lebanese Civil War, in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. It is based in Lebanon, particularly in the southern regions and in the capital city of Beirut. Its ideology incorporates both religious beliefs and political goals, aiming to resist Western influence in the region and support the Palestinian cause against Israel. Hamas was founded in 1987 during the first uprising against Israeli occupation. They are primarily based in the Gaza Strip but also have a presence in the West Bank, the two areas where Palestinians have been forcefully sequestered into. Refer to 1 above. Both Hezbollah and Hamas have been involved in armed resistance against Israel.
- Proxy War: Historically Iran did not fight Israel directly. The non-state actors required financing to maintain consistent militancy against Israel using modern weapons. As it is believed that the financing was Iranian based, Iran’s beef with Israel was essentially outsourced. This was until February 28th 2026, when the war was brought out of the shadows.
- Arab States: The other guys in the school playground. The neighbours who have stood on the sidelines as Gaza was pounded into gravel and dust. The ones who have anticipated this beef would materialize one day and got a Big Brother to offer protection via military bases on their turf. Their turf has now turned into the grass in a savannah that is trampled on when two elephants fight.
- Big Brother: Well, this explanation is entirely up to you. But having read all the explanations above, one does have to ask oneself, what is this party doing in a military theatre, thousands of miles away, with no contiguous proximity to its borders? To help you navigate the answer, just follow the oil – sorry – money.
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